This Democratic Governor's Coronavirus Response Could Determine Who Controls the Senate Next Year

Montana was one of the first states to shut down in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, it’s going to be one of the first to reopen — a calculated policy risk that could carry with it control of the U.S. Senate.

Montana has one of the lowest coronavirus rates in the country, and Gov. Steve Bullock (D) is moving faster and further than any Democratic governor to relax restrictions. Whether his approach works, besides having a huge economic and safety impact on Montanans, could play a key role in his attempt to defeat Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) and possibly tip the Senate to Democrats next year.

Bullock’s response to the crisis could help reshape the race, letting him strengthen his brand as a bipartisan, technocratic dealmaker and help him erase questions about his ill-fated presidential run where he was critical of President Trump, who remains popular in the state. That is, if his approach works.

Bullock ground out a win in 2016 at the same time Trump carried the state by 20 points. To pull off a Senate victory, he’ll need to hang on to most of those crossover voters — a much harder task in a federal race than a gubernatorial one.

If he can pull off an upset, that dramatically increases the likelihood that Democrats can net the three seats they need for a Senate majority this November.

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The Senate race has been eclipsed by the pandemic, and both sides say they’re not actually campaigning. “I don’t think there’d be any patience for either of the Steves to be pointing fingers at one another,” said Daines Chief of Staff Jason Thielman.

“As a citizen of the state of Montana and one of his political advisers, I find it very comforting that he doesn't have any time for me right now,” Bullock adviser Matt McKenna told VICE News.

Just days after launching his bid, Bullock declared a state of emergency. He shuttered schools on March 15, four days before New York City did. He closed down businesses five days later. On March 26, he put a stay-at-home order into effect.

Now he’s moving much faster than even Republican governors to reopen his state. He lifted the stay-at-home order and allowed retail stores and houses of worship to reopen on April 27. He’s one of the few governors in the nation that’s allowing local school districts to decide whether to reopen. Restaurants, bars, breweries, and distilleries were allowed to reopen, with restrictions, on Monday, making Montana one of the few states that’s allowed bars to reopen.

Bullock moved earlier to restrict coronavirus controls than any other Democratic governor except Colorado’s Jared Polis — but he went even further than Polis’s orders.

As governor, Bullock is dominating the headlines and nightly news. To counter that, Daines is spending heavily on a major rotation of ads taking credit for congressional legislation to give people money, protect small business, and fund hospitals.

Another ad accuses China of lying about the coronavirus — a message taken straight out of national Republicans’ playbook that is at odds with Daines’ long history of championing warm relations and more trade trade with China.

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“Senator Steve Daines is holding China accountable,” says one ad, claiming he’s working to help bring drug manufacturing back from China to the U.S.

Bullock’s move to reopen came after the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s model, used by federal authorities, found last week that Montana was close to ready to begin relaxing some restrictions. That model said May 1 would be the first time the state could act safely, and Bullock’s move came more than a week earlier, but Tuesday updates show that Montana’s number of cases and deaths isn’t expected to rise under the new guidelines.

The governor’s team is cautiously optimistic that state and local officials have the testing, hospital and staff capacity to contact-trace any new cases. And he hasn’t lifted a requirement that anyone traveling into the state from elsewhere self-quarantine for two weeks.

“As we create and begin to navigate what this all looks like going forward, we must be flexible,” he said. “None of this is written in stone. We have to assess what is happening on the ground along the way.”

Bullock’s constituents seem happy so far with the way he’s proceeded.

A recent in-depth national poll conducted by four universities found that 74% of Montanans found their state’s government was “reacting about right” to the coronavirus and 63% of Montanans gave Bullock positive marks for his handling of the crisis vs. just 14% who disapproved. By contrast, 50% of Montanans approved of the way Trump was handling the coronavirus outbreak and 29% disapproved.

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Another poll released Tuesday from Montana State University showed even better numbers for Bullock: He led Daines by 46%-39%. That survey is likely too rosy for Bullock-- it also showed Trump winning the state by just six points, when he won Montana by 20 in 2016 — and strategists in both parties say private polling indicates a tossup race. But its coronavirus numbers were notable as well — 70% approved of Bullock’s handling of the pandemic to just 20% who disapproved. Daines got a 48% approval rating on the question, but fully 28% of people said they didn’t know — a sign that the senator hasn’t been able to get as much attention on the topic.

Republicans say if Montana experiences an outbreak, that could badly hurt Bullock’s chances against Daines. But right now, they quietly concede that he’s handled the situation well.

“What’s worse than the pressure of keeping the economy locked up and people in their homes would be the pressure of having to do this all over again if this doesn’t come out right,” said one Montana Republican.

The coronavirus has barely touched Montana — only 16 people known to have had the disease have died there, and Montana had only 457 confirmed cases as of Tuesday, with 406 people already recovered. It helps that it’s as rural as it is — as Daines Chief of Staff Jason Thielman put it, “Social distancing comes a little more naturally to us in Montana.”

But neighboring rural states that didn’t move as quickly or never instituted stay-at-home orders have worse results. According to the COVID Tracking Project, Idaho has four times as many coronavirus cases as Montana even though its population is only one and a half times the size. North Dakota has double the number of recorded coronavirus cases, and South Dakota has five times as many coronavirus cases, even though both have smaller populations than Montana.

Bullock’s aggressive approach to the disease means at least for now there have been more job losses in the state than its neighbors as well, however.

“We have experienced more job losses per capita than any surrounding states. Montana has a deeper hole to climb out of than most other states,” said Thielman.

Bullock has taken heat on all sides for his approach to the coronavirus in the libertarian-leaning state. Some Republicans howled when he moved so early to shut things down, Republicans in the state legislature pushed him to reopen faster, and around 500 right-wing protestors recently came to the state capitol to demand he lift restrictions. Trump himself specifically cited Montana in a press conference as a state that could be ready to reopen days before Bullock announced he’d relax restrictions.

On the other side, some Democrats are uneasy about how fast he’s moved. Whitney Williams, a Democrat who’s facing off against Bullock’s lieutenant governor in a primary to succeed him, called Bullock’s decision to let school districts decide whether they want to reopen “the wrong call for our students and communities.”

Cover: A usually busy Main Street in Livingston, Montana after Governor Steve Bullock order the closing of restaurants, bars, and theaters on March 20,2020 in response to the coronavirus pandemic. (Photo by William Campbell-Corbis via Getty Images)