The pandemic has made for a duller campaign season across the board — dominated by paid media and Zoom sessions — but that’s especially true in the all-important U.S. Senate race between Democrat John Hickenlooper and Republican incumbent Cory Gardner, according to a dozen political scientists and veteran Colorado politicos.
People with knowledge of the campaigns say this is very much by design, and that the two men have distinct reasons for playing this race safe. For Hickenlooper, the consensus is that he’s not taking any risks because, one, he has consistently led Gardner in polls — though some polls show the margin tightening — and, two, he’s gaffe-prone.
Gardner faces what may be an insurmountable challenge: retaining the Donald Trump base to which he long ago allied himself while also attracting independent voters who overwhelmingly disapprove of the president. It’s difficult to satisfy one group without rankling the other, and the upshot is frequently silence, or a paid advertisement.
The two have appeared in zero combined candidate events to date. Only recently did the two campaigns agree to televised debates, to be held Oct. 9 and Oct. 13.
Wendy Schiller, professor and chair of political science at Brown University, has examined Senate contests across the country, and she says Colorado’s stands out nationally for how low-key and scripted it’s been.
“I think it’s unusual,” she said, “and I don’t think it’s emblematic of most of the really contested races.”
Pueblo Democrat Sal Pace, a former Colorado House minority leader, served in the legislature with Gardner while Hickenlooper was governor, and he knows both men well. He said the COVID effect on campaigns has been profound, and that the dullness of the race make sense.
“In the case of Hickenlooper, he’s seen the polling and he knows that (Joe) Biden’s going to win Colorado. It’s in his campaign’s best interest to ride the blue wave that Colorado’s going to be in in 2020. … When you’ve got the wind at your back, you’re typically fine with people voting along party ID,” Pace said.
“Gardner has a little more of a complex problem, because he can’t ride Trump’s coattails to a win in Colorado. He’s working on both ends, trying to solidify his support amongst Trump voters so that they vote all the way down the ticket for him, while simultaneously trying to win over more of the independents than John Hickenlooper. He needs to win over more ticket-splitters.”
Both men are known for being skilled retail politicians, at their respective bests when chatting up strangers and small groups. That’s what each has mostly stuck to in this campaign, but the pandemic presents fewer opportunities for those kinds of interactions. Hickenlooper’s general election approach — to invite select local reporters and then tweet after the fact about how he was out meeting people — has coincidentally been Gardner’s preferred approach. On his official social media accounts, Gardner routinely shares pictures of himself on small-town Main Streets or articles from small papers that he gave interviews to.
Neither candidate is followed consistently by any semblance of a press corps, primarily because their campaigns are highly selective about how and to whom they advertise campaign stops, even though many of those stops are outdoors or in other settings that allow for social distancing.
The lack of scheduling notice also means fewer chances for “trackers” — people assigned by the opposition to video a candidate in hopes of collecting dirt — to keep their eyes on either Gardner or Hickenlooper.
Spokespeople for Gardner declined to respond to multiple interview requests for this story. Hickenlooper spoke with The Denver Post, laughing off the suggestion that he’s running a cautious, scripted campaign.
“It’s sort of like when you go outside when there’s been a heavy snow. Every sound is muted, it doesn’t seem as loud. And with the pandemic, it is hard to get people’s attention,” he said. “I don’t think it’s boring. It just doesn’t — because of COVID, it doesn’t have the same volume.”
The stakes couldn’t be higher in this race. Democrats need to net four seats to take control of the Senate, gaining the ability to confirm or block presidential judicial appointments along with more control over legislation.
Hickenlooper said he won’t let himself dwell on the enormity of it all.
“There is pressure. I don’t really feel it,” he said.
“When I walk through King Soopers, I get people all the time saying, ‘Go get ’em, Hick! More than any campaign I’ve been on, people are encouraging me wherever I go.”
While the candidate may attest to his supporters’ enthusiasm, those interviewed by The Post aren’t seeing it. Most Colorado political observers declined to speak on the record, but Brown professor Schiller said Hickenlooper’s campaign “looks like complacency. It looks like Hillary Clinton in 2016. And I think it’s a mistake.”
“For Hickenlooper,” she added, “I think it’s a mistake to stay so scripted, because he misses the opportunity to ride the wave of Democratic enthusiasm in 2020. I think enthusiasm beats everything else, and if Joe Biden loses this race against Donald Trump, it’s because he stayed inside too long. For Gardner, he could be lifted back into the Senate by Trump enthusiasts who get out the door.”
Gardner’s cautious campaign is smart, Schiller said.
“If he can hang onto those Trump votes, it’s probably a better strategy for him than it is for Hickenlooper.”
Justin Wingerter contributed to this report
